Good experience with Forex Training Course

Many people had bad experience with forex training courses. They paid a high fee to get the training and lost money  in the trading activities (as the methods are not reliable). Here is an exception. This student still lost money, but he felt that the training provided was worth the money spent:

Dear Mr Tan,It would be my pleasure to share my experience with you.
Let me tell you upfront that I am not yet profitable trading forex.  Please allow me to explain why I was still happy with the course.
I took up the forex training course with X in December 2010.  At that time, I was retrenched for about 3 months and was unsuccessful in finding a new job.  With time on my hands and not knowing what else to do, I attended a few forex sales seminars and eventually signed up with X.  I paid about $3000 upfront for the course.
Before I signed up, I had already educated myself on forex trading.  I was aware that there were forex training providers who created the impression that forex was easy money.  X was honest about what forex trading was really about.  This convinced me to sign up.
The course started with 2 days of classroom training over the weekend.  This covered the theoretical knowledge needed to trade forex.  After the classroom sessions, students are entitled to attend regular tutorial sessions for 1 year.  The tutorial sessions were officially on the evenings of Mondays and Wednesdays.  During each session, the Chief Trainer Y would conduct an analysis of one or more currency pairs to demonstrate how he applied his techniques and then pointed out potential trades.  This would be followed by hands on session during which students learn to apply the techniques on their demo accounts while Y would go around answering questions. For those who have the time, X was open daily for students to go in and trade with other traders. Y would conduct two analysis for the students; once before London session opened and once before NY session.  As I did not have a job, I went in daily, from afternoon until night.  During these sessions, Y would analyse a currency pair and point out potential trades.  I found out over time that most of his trade calls were good and resulted in profitable trades.  However, it was a different matter when I did my own analysis and took my own trades.  Most of my trades turned out to be losers.  Faced with Y's successful trades and my own unsuccessful trades, it became obvious to me that it was not the technique but the trader that was the problem. I spent practically all my weekdays at X until I found a job in June.  When I was there, I found Y to be genuine about helping his students.  I was using air-con, Internet and electricity for free.   Although I could not go into X anymore because of work, I still joined the Wednesday sessions via webex meetings.  This was something additional that Y provided.  I didn't have to pay a single cent after that initial $3000 payment.  In fact, I wondered if he could be profitable like this. When I saw your online survey on forex and a comment that all forex courses are overpriced and useless, I knew where you were going with this.  You probably heard feedback from unhappy people who felt that they were cheated by forex schools.  Hence, I felt I should provide a balanced view.  There are indeed forex schools that use questionable tactics to sign up students but there are genuine ones too. Evaluating whether a forex course is good based on trading results can be tricky.  This is because forex trading techniques are easy to learn but it takes time and experience to learn how to apply them correctly.  It takes time, discipline and effort and is not a get rich quick scheme.  Like in any business, only a small percentage eventually master the skill to become successful. I personally found that it is quite safe to trade forex.  I am still working on my forex trading skills.  I have heard of people losing lots of money trading forex but it was usually because they could not follow simple trading rules that would keep them safe.  For example, students are taught not to trade large amounts until they are successful with paper trading or trading with mini accounts for a few months.  Another rule is that you are not supposed to risk more than a small percentage of your capital per trade.   However, there are many people who simply could not follow these simple rules. Mr Tan, if you have read up to this point, thank you for your patience!  And thank you for what you are doing to help ordinary Singaporeans! 

iPhone Apps

I have updated the apps in iPhone for Tangram and Shape Quiz to show a small image (on request) to guide the player in creating the shapes. This will make the app more interesting to the newbie. It is colorful, fun and trains the imagination. The apps can be downloaded from App Store by searching for "Tan Kin Lian".

High Notes and Pinnacle Notes

The Straits Times journalist asked for my views about the dismissal of the appeal by the High Notes investors against the earlier judgement. I replied that I am sad to learn about this outcome for the following reasons:

• The investors already lost all of their investments. They now have to bear their legal expenses and, possibly, the expenses of the DBS lawyer.
• This decision came around the same time as the good news received by the Pinnacle Notes investors that the New York court has agreed to hear their class action against Morgan Stanley. Furthermore, the New York case is being heard under a "success fee" arrangement where the investors do not have to bear any legal cost, if they do not succeed in the case.
• The High Notes were created by DBS and sold to its own customers. This gives a higher responsibility to DBS, as they should be aware of the risk of this product and should have communicated it clearly to their customers The other credit notes were created and sold by different banks.

I hope that DBS Bank will at least undertake to bear the legal cost of both sides, so that their customers do not have to bear any further loss. It would have been nicer if DBS Bank had offered to give an ex-gratia payment to the investors, instead of having this case decided in court. I believe that DBS Bank might have sold a similar product in Hong Kong and they probably had agreed to compensate the investors in some way - but I do not really have the facts.

Tan Kin Lian

Investing in Options

I do not like to invest in options. My reasons are:

• The price of the option is decided by an expert who takes the other side of the trade. This expert is likely to fix a price that will give him a profit (after allowing for the future possible outcomes). As the other party to this "bet", the retail investor is likely to make a loss.
• It is possible for the option issuer to manipulate the price of the underlying shares to avoid making a loss. For example, if the option pays out a large sum of money when the underlying share hits a certain price, the option issuer will buy or sell the underlying share to avoid hitting the strike price. The cost of buying the manipulating the price of the underlying share will be lower than the  payout on the option strike.

If a retail investor wishes to speculate, it is better to buy or sell the underlying share, rather than buy an option. For long term investors, it is better to buy blue chip shares and keep for the long term to enjoy the dividends and the long term capital gain (and forget about short term fluctuation in the share price).

Lesson: Do not invest in options or other derivatives. Buy or sell the underlying share. Speculating in futures is all right, as the price is a direct reflection of the underlying share index.

Policing the Internet

I found this statement in Singapore Notes:

In the CNA Talking Point episode "Policing The Internet", MP (Tampines GRC) Baey Yam Keng claimed that the Ministry of Law sees the internet as another platform for real world criminals to operate from, and people need to be protected from fraud, cyber-bullying, etc. The timing of gazetting online blogs had nothing to do with policing the internet, he said with a poker face. While at it, he might as well add that the president's addendum had nothing to do with the online revelations about the circumstances of his son's 12 year deferment. The wording of the Ministry of Law statement on the subject goes like this:"The proliferation of new media has brought about new challenges to the rule of law and the ministry will review legislation to deal with harmful and unlawful online conduct". Smells like a good-cop-bad-cop routine is in play.

I am in favour of policing the Internet to make sure that it is useful for lawful purposes. This is to prevent people from doing harmful things while remaining anonymous. I know that it is difficult to police the Internet but it should not deter us from taking the challenge.

The first step is to lay down the law clearly and identify what are offences and crimes. Some examples are:

• Defamation
• Bullying
• Telling lies
• Cheating

These are offences in the real world, so it should not be different in the Internet world. The next step is to enforce the law and take action against the culprits. This is not different in the real world. Someone will report to the Police of an alleged crime. The Police will have to investigate and gather evidence to find out the culprit and charge the culprit in court. 

The next challenge is to have sufficient people to do the work. There is no short cut to enforcing the law - you need policemen and public prosecutors. These are good jobs - much better than having more people to be insurance and property agents!

I am also in favour of a requirement that people posting statements should be identified. They can use a pen name, but their real name should be registered somewhere and can be traced for accountability. I do not support people giving views and statements under anonymous cover, as the lack of accountability can lead to bad behaviour.

Some people feel that they have to be anonymous to avoid bullying by the people in power. This is not a good reason. If the people in power act badly, we should vote them out of office. But if they are elected, we have to live with the consequence, i.e. obey the rules and the law - including speaking with accountability.

Risk of Credit Default Swaps (CDS)

Suppose you bought Greek bonds and to protect yourself against default, you bought a CDS and paid a premium for this protection. The Greek government now offers repayment with a 50% "haircut" (i.e. you suffer a 50% loss) and you wish to make a claim on the CDS. Will you get paid for your loss?

According to this article, you will not be paid, as this is called a "voluntary settlement". On the other hand, there are many investors who were on the other side of the CDS during the Lehman crisis, and they lost all of their investments. It is "tail they win, head you lose".

Lesson: Avoid all types of complex instruments. Just invest in the STI Exchange Traded Fund or in blue chip share". Attend the FISCA Financial Planning talk - http://easyapps.sg/assn/Org/Event.aspx?id=5

DBS High Notes Investors Lose Appeal

It is sad that the retail investors lost the appeal with cost. This means that they lost their investment and also have to pay their lawyer's fees. So, their loss is compounded.

Singapore Investors Lose Bid to Recoup $14 Million Lehman-Related Losses

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/singapore-investors-lose-bid-to-recoup-lehman-related-losses-on-appeal.html

The Bloomberg article did not mean the words "with cost". I remember reading it in the newspapers.  I believe that this meant that the investors also have to pay the legal fees of DBS Bank (but I need someone to confirm this fact).

In contrast, read this Good News for Pinnacle Notes Investors